GAME ON: TURKISH PRESIDENT ACCEPTS INVITATION TO HISTORIC FOOTBALL MATCH, ArmeniaNow.com, 05.09.2008
ARARAT CENTER CONTRIBUTING CORESSPONDENT’S COMMENTS, Stepan Sargsyan, 05.09.2008

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Date: 05.09.2008

Source: Armenianow.com

Game On: Turkish president accepts invitation to historic football match

September 6, when Armenia will host Turkey in World Cup Qualifying, is being viewed as Armenia’s day of “football diplomacy”, just like the table tennis championship in the 1970s that became the first step in US-China relations known as “the ping pong diplomacy”.

This week Turkey’s president Abdullah Gul accepted Armenia’s president Serzh Sargsyan’s invitation to come to Yerevan for the match at Hrazdan Stadium. A special Turkish envoy was in Armenia Wednesday to discuss security details.

The rival president’s visit will mark the first time a high-ranking Turkish official has visited Armenia since borders were closed (and remain so) between the countries in 1993.

Many analysts tie Gul’s acceptance to the new situation in the region underlining the visit is advantageous to Turkey, who has recently appeared with a new initiative on creating the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform.

In an interview to the Turkish Radikal newspaper on August 29th Gul said: “We are all children of the same land. Throughout history Turks and Armenians have lived on this soil together to the extent that the Ottomans called Armenians ‘the loyal nation’ and appointed them to important state positions. We have many bitter and sweet memories. As I said last time at the ceremony devoted to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad we cherish in our hearts [a hope] all countries of the region will participate in these projects one day.”

Turkish PM Erdogan first made the initiative to form a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform public on August 13th underlining the necessity of involving Armenia.

“The Turks hold great hope that the new structure will provide them a new platform in the Caucasus and Armenia’s involvement is particularly important,” says director of the Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Turkologist Ruben Safrastyan.

Safrastyan conditions the recently noticed moves in Armenian-Turkish relations also with the changes in the outside world and [imposed] pressure.

“They realize in Turkey that Resolution 106 (for Genocide recognition) will have continuation in the US Congress in case Democratic candidate Barrack Obama wins in the US and settling the relations with Armenia will make protecting Turkey against the Congress easier,” says the expert.

However, this new momentum in the Armenian-Turkish relations has not received an unambiguous response in Armenia.

The first reflection came from the former president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan who stated in an interview to Mediamax news agency: “If I ruled the country, the President of Turkey definitely would not be invited to Yerevan to watch the football match.”

Meanwhile the first President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan both welcomed the idea of the invitation and even changed the plans of the Armenian National Congress by postponing the rally planned for September 5 and stopping the day-round sitting-strike.

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation plans to meet Turkey’s President with a protest rally.

Sargsyan stated in an interview to the Turkish Radikal regarding the protest: “I think that the actions they will take to make their voice heard will not overstep the limits of the actions acceptable for this kind of official visits. Those who will display uncivilized attitude toward President Gule will display it first of all toward Armenia and myself since the invitation was issued by me.”

Representative of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Hrant Margaryan says the Dashnaktsutyun can’t keep silent, despite its being a part of the ruling coalition.

“Turkey continues its anti-Armenian policies and it will be a shame if we don’t make our voice heard in our country.”

Doctor of Political Science Armen Ayvazyan anticipates no serious changes with Gul’s visit, but quotes the lessons of history warning ‘flirting’ with Turkey will bring to irretrievable consequences as was the case after the improvement of relations with Turkey before the Genocide and the fall of Kars.

The director of Ararat Center for Strategic Research (http://www.ararat-center.org/) underlines Armenia will pay a big price for opening the border.

“The government of Armenia means setting diplomatic relations and opening border by saying settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations, but the core issue of the relations – Turkey’s strategic purposes – is ignored,” says Ayvazyan. “Turkey has continued its hostile policies toward Armenia for the last 16 years ranging from psychological and information war and destruction of monuments to providing all kinds of support to Azerbaijan and the genocide denial.”

The expert asserts the government of Armenia refuses to properly appraise Turkey’s policy: “which is a result of either an imposed pressure or lack of understanding of the essence of the problem.”

“Armenia has already made numerous concessions and the vivid evidence is the rhetoric used by the Armenian President while talking about the Armenian-Turkish relations. For example, he never used the word ‘genocide’ in the article posted in the Wall Street Journal.”

In the article called “We Are Ready to Talk to Turkey” published in the Wall Street Journal on July 9 President Sargsyan mentioned talking about the opening of borders and settlement of relations: “Only through them can we create an effective dialogue touching upon even the most contentious historical issues.”

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The setback in the process of the recognition of the Armenian Genocide (AG) by the US government will be another consequence of Turkey’s imitation of improving relations with Armenia.

During various Congressional hearings the US State Department and other officials have justified US government’s refusal to recognize the AG by their unwillingness to hurt the Turkish-Armenian efforts at reconciliation. The Turkish president’s visit and Serge Sargsyan’s offer to hold a joint historical commission on the AG provides perfect opportunity for the US government to pursue the same line of reasoning. Furthermore, those US politicians who have promised their support for the recognition of AG in return for Armenian American votes can use this recent activity as a justification for not fulfilling their promise. In current circumstances even the Obama/Biden tandem would find it preferable to renege on their promise of recognition. It would be much harder for them to explain to the American people why the American president should endanger the supply lines of US troops in Iraq by recognizing the AG when the Armenian officials are holding discussions with their Turkish counterparts on creating a joint commission on AG. Afterall, if the Turks and Armenians are still sorting out their issues and trying to figure out what happened in 1915 with the help of a historical commission, why should the US government get involved? In that case, the actions of ANCA and other Armenian lobbying groups will be severely constrained.

Thus, the recent Turkish insinuation of rapprochement is not a genuine effort aimed at solving its conflict with Armenia, but a change in tactics employed to achieve the same objectives (an unviable Armenian state, neutralized AG recognition campaign, return of Artsakh to Azerbaijan) that its policies of blockade and open hostility failed to achieve over the past 15 years.

Stepan Sargsyan
Contributing Correspondent (Los Angeles)
ARARAT Center for Strategic Research

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